Harambee Stars finally won a competitive game of football and the whole nation was euphoric like we just discovered fire. This rarity occurred on the night of 20th November, 2023 when Kenya won a competitive away game for the first time since.. (who remembers?). Granted, it was a good
victory; five goals without reply cannot be gainsaid. But still
it was against an injury-rocked team, ranked almost 70 places below us and on the back of a heavy defeat.
For context, Ivory Coast beat the team in question (Seychelles Islands) by nine goals to
nothing. And while we also had injuries of our own, the game or the result thereof, does not reflect the true strengths of both teams. We were lucky to meet an already weakened team, in near free-fall state of decline and at its worst moment. And while the scoreline doesn't reflect it, Seychelles mustered chances of their own, with which a decent team would have punished us. By my count, they could have scored as many as four goals had they a better striker.
Before that Harambee stars had played against Gabon in a FIFA World Cup qualification match and, as expected, got themselves well beaten by their hosts. That is hardly surprising. We all knew that the results were only going to go one way. At least were are honest with ourselves. Except, the head-coach of the Stars tried to peddle hope and confidence to the fan-base. "The team has been well prepared," he said, "we can beat anybody." But who in their right minds can trust a coach who has lost nearly all games he's taken charge of since he got the job? Who really is this guy, Engin Firat, anyway? And how on earth did he get the job? Was he the most qualified coach Kenya could get? Okay, we'll let that slide for now.
But who in their right minds can trust a coach who has lost nearly all games he's taken charge of since he got the job?
The guy is almost anonymous. The only other country he's coached, other than Kenya, is Moldova! And they sacked him in less than a year! For heaven's sake even South Sudan has a more qualified and better experienced coach. Yes, South Sudan, a country barely half a decade old. A country whose GPD is less than a tenth of Kenya's. And they pulled the upset of the century when they beat us on our backyard a fortnight ago in a friendly match. People may say that it was only a friendly match, but friendly matches show you where you are. South Sudan are better than us. That's how low we have sank. To even remotely imagine that Kenya could, under any circumstances, qualify for the next world cup finals is the very diagnosis of an insanity. There is no way we are gonna qualify with Engin Firat at the helm of Harambee Stars. We should instead shift our focus to the qualification for the 2025 cup of Nations Finals.
We know that Nick Mwendwa cannot be trusted to hire a decent coach. For someone who literally picked Stanley Okumbi out of oblivion and perched him at the helm of the national football team of the most developed nation in East and Central Africa, his judgement is questionable. Think about it for a second. Stanley Okumbi was at one time- not long ago - the head coach of the Harambee stars. I don't know what qualification the guy has got but the man has zero experience in managing an international side even at club level. He was in charge of some middle-to-bottom half table team in the Kenya Premier League sometime ago, and fact alone was deemed by Mr. Mwendwa to be a good enough qualification for a national team role. After a decade managing local clubs, Stanley Okumbi is yet to win any title in Kenyan football (not even the now defunct and nonsensical KPL Top Eight Trophy).
As things stand, Kenya lies third on three points in Group F. There are six teams in the group. There are nine groups in total. Ivory Coast leads Group F with six points followed by Gabon which also boasts six points but an inferior goal difference to that of the Ivorians. Burundi, Gambia and Seychelles have no points to show after two rounds of games. Kenya still has to play Ivory Coast, Gambia and Burundi twice each (home and away), plus two home games against Gabon and Seychelles. Bear in mind that only the group winners directly qualifies for the World Cup Finals. Four (4) best group runners-up take part in an intercontinental play-offs which pit them against teams from other continents. Harambee Stars' chances of qualification look slim indeed. In the two games we've played so far, we lost to Gabon 2-1 in Libreville and beat Seychelles away.
The is no way we're going to beat Ivory Coast to first place. We'll be very lucky to finish second and given that there are nine groups in African World Cup 2026 Qualifications, the chances of us making it to the four best runners-up look quite slim. We could even make it into the four best runners up in Africa and still fall at the intercontinental pay-offs level. There's no way we're going to eliminate the likes of Bolivia, Andorra, Israel, Moldova, Liechtenstein and Guatemala. (Have you ever been to Guatemala?).
So, no, things aren't looking good for Kenya. Harambee Stars aren't going to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup finals. It's that simple. It has nothing to do with talent or lack thereof. It comes down to preparation and how seriously the national team is taken by the powers that be. A nation without a CAF-Approved stadium (let alone FIFA-sanctioned one) and hires an anonymous Turkish man to take charge of it's national team has never qualified for world cup finals before. We are not gonna be the first.
Is there tribalism and favuoritism in Harambee Stars team selection? Find out here.
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