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HARAMBEE STARS' CHANCES OF QUALIFYING FOR THE 2026 FIFA WORLD CUP

Kenya national football team (Harambee Stars) finally won a competitive game of football and the whole nation was euphoric like we just discovered fire. This rarity occurred on the night of 20th November, 2023 when Kenya won a competitive away game for the first time since.. (who remembers?). Granted, it was a good victory; five goals without reply cannot be taken lightly. But still it was against an injury-rocked team, ranked almost 70 places below Kenya and themselves on the back of a heavy defeat. For context, Ivory Coast beat the team in question (Seychelles Islands) by nine goals to nothing. And while we also had injuries of our own, the game or the result thereof, does not reflect the true strengths of both teams. We were lucky to meet an already demoralized team, in near free-fall state of decline and at its worst moment. And while the scoreline doesn't reflect it, Seychelles mustered chances of their own, with which a decent team would have punished us. By my count, they could have scored as many as four goals had they a better striker.

 Before that, Harambee stars had played against Gabon in a FIFA World Cup qualification match and, as expected, got themselves well beaten by their hosts. That is hardly surprising. We all knew that the results were only going to go one way. At least were are honest with ourselves. Except, the head-coach of the Harambee Stars tried to peddle hope and confidence to the fan-base. "The team has been well prepared," he was quoted as saying, "we can beat anybody on our day." The problem is, Harambee Stars hardly ever have their day. Even though there is nothing wrong with acting all tough and confident, it is better if words are followed by some semblance of effort. Kenyans were not convinced by Firat's posturing and chest-thumping. I wasn't either. Because, if you think about it, who in their right minds can trust a coach who has lost nearly all games he's taken charge of since he got the job? Who really is this guy, Engin Firat, anyway? And how on earth did he get the job? Was he the most qualified coach Kenya could get? Okay, we'll let that slide for now.

But who in their right minds can trust a coach who has lost nearly all games he's taken charge of since he got the job?

There are better coaches out there yet Kenya could only go for Firat. I don't think he's experienced enough: The only other country he's coached, other than Kenya, is Moldova! And they sacked him in less than a year! For heaven's sake even South Sudan has a more qualified and better experienced coach. And they pulled the upset of the century when they beat us on our backyard a fortnight ago in a friendly match. People may say that it was only a friendly match, but friendly matches show you where you are in the pecking order. Going by the result of that friendly, South Sudan are better than us. It's plain and simple. To even remotely imagine that Kenya could, under any circumstances, qualify for the next world cup finals is the very diagnosis of an insanity. There is no way we are gonna qualify with Engin Firat at the helm of Harambee Stars. We should instead shift our focus to the qualification for the 2025 cup of Nations Finals.

As things stand, Kenya lies third on three points in Group F. There are six teams in the group and there are nine groups in total. To qualify for the world cup, Kenya must finish top of the group or finish second and hope to be among 4 best runners up to take part in grueling inter-continental play-offs. Ivory Coast leads Group F with six points, and look set to win the group. They are followed by Gabon which also boasts six points but an inferior goal difference. Kenya lies third with three points. Burundi, Gambia and Seychelles have no points to show for their efforts after two rounds of games. Kenya still has to play Ivory Coast, Gambia and Burundi twice each (home and away), plus two home games against Gabon and Seychelles. Bear in mind that only the group winners directly qualifies for the World Cup Finals. Four (4) best group runners-up take part in an intercontinental play-offs which pit them against teams from other continents. Harambee Stars' chances of qualification look slim indeed. In the two games we've played so far, we lost to Gabon 2-1 in Libreville and beat Seychelles away by 5 goals to nil.

The is no way we're going to beat Ivory Coast to first place. We'll be very lucky to finish second and given that there are nine groups in African World Cup 2026 Qualifications, the chances of us making it to the four best runners-up look quite slim. We could even make it into the four best runners up in Africa, if we are very lucky, and still fall at the intercontinental pay-offs level. There's no way we're going to eliminate the likes of Bolivia, Andorra, Israel, Moldova, Liechtenstein and Guatemala. (Have you ever been to Guatemala?).

So, no, things don't looking good for Kenya as far as World Cup Qualification is concerned. We must come to terms with the fact that our beloved Harambee Stars aren't going to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup finals. It's that simple. It is that dad. And it has nothing to do with talent or lack thereof. It comes down to preparation and how seriously the national team is taken by the powers that be. A nation without a CAF-Approved home stadium (let alone FIFA-sanctioned one) and hires an anonymous Turkish man to take charge of it's national team has never qualified for world cup finals before. I bet we are not gonna be the first.

 

Is there tribalism and favoritism in Harambee Stars team selection? Find out here.

 


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