This is not a drill. Dr. William Samoei Ruto may actually end up being Kenya's fifth president. He has come a long way and right now he is only one step away. He is the deputy president. That's the closest you can ever get to the coveted seat. And he seems to have a huge following of people who are ready to lay down their lives for him. His tribe is one of the largest in the country, let's not forget that. Let's forget instead the self-righteous pretense that elections in Kenya are won on the attractiveness one's policies and not the size of one's tribe or tribal alliance. For all the accusations and claims leveled against him, all the momentum seem to be with Dr. William Ruto. Ruto ticks all the boxes, who's gonna stop this train?
Who's gonna stop him? Well, Raila Odinga, that's who. The most electrifying man in the history of Kenyan politics, Raila Odinga always seems to find the best formation for the stab, and boy, how good are things looking for him now! But let's face it, Raila Odinga isn't getting younger. His speeches aren't as good as they used to be. Raila has lost some long-standing allies some of whom have joined the Tangatanga camp. Ruto took all of Raila's tactics, perfected them and turned them against him. Raila invented the now too common campaign antic of dancing on the campaign podium, use of songs as themes for campaigns, being installed as an elder of this community or that, dressing up in traditional regalia, use of humour and surrounding himself with powerful people each representing major regions of the country. Ruto has copied all these and they're serving him quite well, you'll have to admit.
Ruto has continued to Characterize Raila Odinga's fifth stab at the presidency as a "State Project" and it may well be. But the same thing can be said of their own election "victories" in 2013 and 2017. Ruto promotes the so-called "bottom up economic model" which resonates well with the many not-so-well-off Kenyans. But there is a darker more sinister motive involved here as well: class struggle. Ruto wants to make this election be about social antagonism pitting the poor which he calls "hustlers" against the rich which he terms "dynasties". Ruto himself is Rich, so this has not - as you'd expect - sold well. Many have observed that it is not any less dangerous to pit one class against another than it is to incite one tribe against the other. The last thing Kenya needs is a class struggle, but if it will serve Ruto's ends, he'll do it. He's doing it.
Raila Odinga cannot be spared of criticism either. All his life Odinga has fought against the establishment or the so-called "deep state" or "the system". No one has shaken "them" up like Mr. Odinga. But being 77 years old, and having given the best years of his life in this struggle, Odinga must have realized that "you can't beat the system". He has one bullet and he isn't intent on wasting it. He has sold out. Now, with the system's gush of wind behind his sail, he looks unstoppable. But he has sacrificed all he stood for, was incarcerated for and bickered for all his life, and what for? Only a short five year stint at the presidency. Who is the winner in all these, you may ask. Well, the system always wins. If you want any evidence of that look no farther than 2007.
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